Tuesday, April 25, 2006

 

Iran's Illusion?|چراهسته ای ایران ؟

We can assume that if Iran simply wanted to increase its energy resources, it would build more refineries, which it lacks. Therefore, one might assume that Iran's nuclear program is actually military, rather than defensive in nature. Thinking back to Iraq, Wood, Lacey and Murray point out in Foreign Affairs that:
According to Chemical Ali, Saddam was asked about the weapons during a meeting with members of the Revolutionary Command Council. He replied that Iraq did not have WMD but flatly rejected a suggestion that the regime remove all doubts to the contrary, going on to explain that such a declaration might encourage the Israelis to attack.
The article argues that Saddam created an illusion of weapons of mass destruction to deter US/Israeli attacks. But the illusion ended up inviting attacks. Why does Iran want to create an "illusion" of wmd, despite this risk?

  1. Nuclearity as a political assertion of sovereignty. Iran has no intention of using nuclear weapons for offensive purposes, and doesn't necessarily forsee them for defensive purposes, but is sees nuclearity as a measure of state success. Probablility: 0.5.
  2. Nuclearity as a defensive measure. Iran feels a definite threat from other nations, and is creating the illusion of nuclearity to defend itself in the future via the threat of nuclearity. Probability: 0.4.
  3. Nuclearity as an offensive measure. Iran is developing the illusion of nuclear weapons in preparation to widen its percieved offensive capabilities against other nation states. Iran forsees itself as a player in a future offensive military operation. Probability: 0.1.
I have assigned the probability of each of these reasons based on my personal perceptions. Each deserves more detailed discussion, which I will undertake in future posts.

مامی توانیم آن فرض بکنیم اگرایران به سادگی بخواهدکه افزایش بیابیم منابع انرژیش ،

خودآن خواهدتوانست که پالایشگاه های زیادتری ،بسازدکه آن فاقدباشد

بنابراین ،یک ممکن بودفرض بکندکه برنامه مال ) متعلق به ( ایران هسته ای واقعاارتش ،

تااین که دفاع درطبیعت است

درامورخارج آن خاطرنشان می کند : Murray و Lacey ، Wood Foreign Affairs تفکرپشت به عراق ،

Command راجع به سلاح درطی یک ملاقات باعضوهاازشورا Saddam علی شیمی طبق ،

پرسیده شد Revolutionary

داردامامطلقاردکردیک رژیم که توصیه تمام شکها WMD اوپاسخ دادکه عراق انجام نداد

به مقابل ،بردارد

بعنوان نظریه سیاسی استقلال Nuclearity

به آنها forsee ایران قصدسلاح اتمی های کاربردبرای مقصودهای حمله ،نداردولزوما

بعنوان اقدام موفقیت حالت است nuclearity برای مقصودهای تدافعی ،امادیدنها

بعنوان اقدام تدافعی Nuclearity

nuclearity ایران یک خطرصریح ازملتهای دیگر،احساس می کندودارداشتباه حسی

حمایت بنماید nuclearity می آفریندکه خودش رادرازطریق آینده خطر

احتمال :

بصورت یک اقدام تعرضی Nuclearity

ایران دارداشتباه حسی سلاح اتمی هادرآماده سازی پرورش می یاب

من احتمال هریک ازاین مبنی بردلیلهاادراکهاشخصیم تعیین کرده ام

مشروحتربحث ،که من درمحل خدمتهای آینده تعهدخواهم کرد deserves ه


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