Thursday, April 27, 2006
The Treasure Hunt|تصویرگنج
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Iran's Illusion?|چراهسته ای ایران ؟
According to Chemical Ali, Saddam was asked about the weapons during a meeting with members of the Revolutionary Command Council. He replied that Iraq did not have WMD but flatly rejected a suggestion that the regime remove all doubts to the contrary, going on to explain that such a declaration might encourage the Israelis to attack.The article argues that Saddam created an illusion of weapons of mass destruction to deter US/Israeli attacks. But the illusion ended up inviting attacks. Why does Iran want to create an "illusion" of wmd, despite this risk?
- Nuclearity as a political assertion of sovereignty. Iran has no intention of using nuclear weapons for offensive purposes, and doesn't necessarily forsee them for defensive purposes, but is sees nuclearity as a measure of state success. Probablility: 0.5.
- Nuclearity as a defensive measure. Iran feels a definite threat from other nations, and is creating the illusion of nuclearity to defend itself in the future via the threat of nuclearity. Probability: 0.4.
- Nuclearity as an offensive measure. Iran is developing the illusion of nuclear weapons in preparation to widen its percieved offensive capabilities against other nation states. Iran forsees itself as a player in a future offensive military operation. Probability: 0.1.
مامی توانیم آن فرض بکنیم اگرایران به سادگی بخواهدکه افزایش بیابیم منابع انرژیش ،
خودآن خواهدتوانست که پالایشگاه های زیادتری ،بسازدکه آن فاقدباشد
بنابراین ،یک ممکن بودفرض بکندکه برنامه مال ) متعلق به ( ایران هسته ای واقعاارتش ،
تااین که دفاع درطبیعت است
درامورخارج آن خاطرنشان می کند : Murray و Lacey ، Wood Foreign Affairs تفکرپشت به عراق ،
Command راجع به سلاح درطی یک ملاقات باعضوهاازشورا Saddam علی شیمی طبق ،
پرسیده شد Revolutionary
داردامامطلقاردکردیک رژیم که توصیه تمام شکها WMD اوپاسخ دادکه عراق انجام نداد
به مقابل ،بردارد
بعنوان نظریه سیاسی استقلال Nuclearity به آنها forsee ایران قصدسلاح اتمی های کاربردبرای مقصودهای حمله ،نداردولزوما بعنوان اقدام موفقیت حالت است nuclearity برای مقصودهای تدافعی ،امادیدنها بعنوان اقدام تدافعی Nuclearity nuclearity ایران یک خطرصریح ازملتهای دیگر،احساس می کندودارداشتباه حسی حمایت بنماید nuclearity می آفریندکه خودش رادرازطریق آینده خطر احتمال : بصورت یک اقدام تعرضی Nuclearity ایران دارداشتباه حسی سلاح اتمی هادرآماده سازی پرورش می یاب
بعنوان نظریه سیاسی استقلال Nuclearity
به آنها forsee ایران قصدسلاح اتمی های کاربردبرای مقصودهای حمله ،نداردولزوما
بعنوان اقدام موفقیت حالت است nuclearity برای مقصودهای تدافعی ،امادیدنها
بعنوان اقدام تدافعی Nuclearity
nuclearity ایران یک خطرصریح ازملتهای دیگر،احساس می کندودارداشتباه حسی
حمایت بنماید nuclearity می آفریندکه خودش رادرازطریق آینده خطر
بصورت یک اقدام تعرضی Nuclearity
ایران دارداشتباه حسی سلاح اتمی هادرآماده سازی پرورش می یاب
من احتمال هریک ازاین مبنی بردلیلهاادراکهاشخصیم تعیین کرده ام
مشروحتربحث ،که من درمحل خدمتهای آینده تعهدخواهم کرد deserves ه
Thursday, April 20, 2006
The Tactical Nuke: A Misnomer
"Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) are hard to define precisely... TNW were often thought of as lower yield and opearating over shorter distances than multi-megaton, inter-continental strategic weapons, but such definitions are from the perspective of the Cold War nuclear calculus between the United States and the Soviet Union. In the 21st Century, a 100 kiloton weapon delivered into a port city by a ship would destroy much of the city, hardly a "tactical" attack. A small country may have a few nuclear devices of "tactical" size, but they may be enough to deter their neighbors, a strategic deterrant. [TNWs are] usable by a theater commander ... They will be targeted based on rapidly changing local circumstances, not pre-targeted like a strategic deterrant. However, under present conditions, using even the smallest nuclear weapon is considered a "threshhold decision" and is under the control of the highest national authorities, not local commanders, in all nuclear nations."
In other words, there is currently NO SUCH THING as a tactical nuclear weapon. All nuclear weapons are just that -- nuclear weapons, and none are currently left to the discretion of those in the field. Even as they are proposed for use in Iran, nuclear bombs (such as bunker busters) would not represent TNW -- commands for their use would certainly filter down from the President himself. Instead, TNWs refer to a hypothetical war in which TNW are used as regular arms in the field.
So here's my definition of tactical nuclear weapons, which differs from the previously defined version. TNWs are nuclear bombs intended to destroy specific, limited military (rather than civilian) targets that conventional weapons cannot effectively destroy, while producing a minimum of fallout and collateral damage. This is the definition that is currently in use just about everywhere, and it's probably not worth worrying about semantics.
Additional topics that you would like me to investigate can be emailed to me directly via firstname.lastname@example.org or on skype @ conplan8022.
Other Persian Gold Steady
Persian Gold plc is an AIM listed UK company set-up to identify and exploit gold opportunities in Iran.
Since this is a foreign investment in a product not yet being actively produced, its value is based upon the potential for continued future exploration in Iran (granted world gold prices are rising also). If bad stuff was about to go down there, foreign investment stocks like this should plummet. So while Iranians are running out to buy all the gold coins they can, and to open their own gold exchange, and while the price of oil is shooting up on speculation, foreign investment in the real gold seems to remain secure, for the moment.
Sunday, April 16, 2006
A Nuclear Bill of Rights
It's helpful for me to hear what the people of Iran are thinking. And if Amirreza is any representation of that, they're not thinking about war and global supremecay, but about their own proud heritage and how they may continue that.
Confluence of Religions
According to a contact, Mansoor, I spoke with from Tehran, "The celebration is usually simple at our houses. There's no gifts in fact. People usually meet each other or call each other and congratulate by phone. But some people arrange parties that a lot of people participate."
In researching this on the web, I found very few resources to guide me along the way. For example, many sites used the word Wiladat instead of birthday, but I could not find out what this term means (Mansoor told me that it means "date of birth"). As these statements attest to my ignorance of Islam, I will devote additional time in this blog to sharing with you what I learn about Islam, particularly as practiced in Iran.
Introducing Maurice Motamed
According to Mr. Motamed, in the current climate set up byIran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "a backlash in the wake of [U.S. or Israeli] air strikes becomes a real possibility."
Regarding Iran's right to nuclear power: From MEMRI: "I have traveled many times outside Iran, and have discussed the issue [of the Iranian nuclear project]. I have been asked for my opinion and that of the Iranian Jewish community, and I have always emphasized that the Iranian people has the right to obtain nuclear technology and energy for peaceful purposes. The Iranian people must not give up this right under any circumstances - and indeed, it will not."
I have read and heard from Iranian contact a lot about the right to nuclear status. This is something I will be discussing a lot in coming days.
All quiet in the trenches
When I asked a friend of mine who is an officer in the marines what he thinks about the prospects of a conflict with Iran, he said that he hasn't heard anything about such a prospect specifically, but that in his line of work, one enemy is as good as the next.
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Dancing with Uranium Gas
Dancers perform as they hold capsules of uranium hexaflouride, or UF6 gas during a ceremony in Mashhad, Iran’s holiest city, Tuesday, April 11, 2006. In a nationally televised speech, Ahmadinejad called on the West "not to cause an everlasting hatred in the hearts of Iranians" by trying to force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment.
Is dancing with UF6 safe?
According to Wikipedia, it forms solid grey crystals at standard temperature and pressure (STP), is highly toxic, reacts violently with water and is corrosive to most metals. According to Argonne National Lab, in addition to being radioactive, released UF6 can have toxic chemical effects (primarily on the kidneys) if it enters the bloodstream by means of ingestion or inhalation. HF is an extremely corrosive gas that can damage the lungs and cause death if inhaled at high enough concentrations. According to the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, UF6 is one of the most highly soluble industrial uranium compounds and, when airborne, hydrolyzes immediately on contact with water to form hydrofluoric acid (HF). Thus, an inhalation exposure to UF6 is actually an inhalation exposure to a mixture of fluorides. The HF component may produce pulmonary irritation, corrosion, or edema, and the uranium component may produce renal injury.
Be it resolved, therefore, that dancing with uranium hexaflouride is not generally advised.
All quiet on capitol hill
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
How close is 3.5% to 90%?
The treasure hunt.
Picture dated 24 October 2004 shows Iranian MPs inspecting parts of the nuclear plant in the central Iranian city of Isfahan which is used as Uranium Conversion Facility
The turbine of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Bushehr has a very interesting history. A german company started construction of it in the late 70's, but as it was nearing completion in the early 80's, the revolution and war prevented its completion and damaged it. Iran refused proposals to convert it to natural gas, and has (with Russian help?) almost finished rebuilding it for nuclear use.
What exactly is in the mystery barrel? How many pictures like this have we seen?
As the WP pointed out for Iraq, there is a difference between pictures of people in white coats standing around a dangerous barrel, and the real thing. None of this stuff may be anything real, and we wouldn't know the difference!