Wednesday, April 12, 2006

 

How close is 3.5% to 90%?

I asked contact who is a nuclear engineer at Argonne National Lab and specializes in the design of nuclear fuels to decrease the risk of proliferation if he thought a jump from 3.5% uranium enrichment to 90% bomb grade enrichment was a major technical hurdle for Iran to overcome. First of all, there are lots of small research reactors spread all over the world at universities and labs which use high enriched uranium. The easiest way to make a bomb would be to get your hands on some of this basically already enriched uranium from these very low security operations. Second, he emphasized that the technology to make a bomb is basically out there, and that if Iran already can enrich to 3.5%, there is very little to keep them from enriching to 90% and getting some sort of bomb made. While its delivery system may not be the most sophisticated, they could get something together. Note that a much more isolated North Korea may have already done this ... put a bunch of engineers in a room, and they'll figure out a way to make it happen.

 

The treasure hunt.

What's going on in these pictures?
Picture dated 24 October 2004 shows Iranian MPs inspecting parts of the nuclear plant in the central Iranian city of Isfahan which is used as Uranium Conversion Facility









The turbine of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Bushehr has a very interesting history. A german company started construction of it in the late 70's, but as it was nearing completion in the early 80's, the revolution and war prevented its completion and damaged it. Iran refused proposals to convert it to natural gas, and has (with Russian help?) almost finished rebuilding it for nuclear use.




What exactly is in the mystery barrel? How many pictures like this have we seen?


As the WP pointed out for Iraq, there is a difference between pictures of people in white coats standing around a dangerous barrel, and the real thing. None of this stuff may be anything real, and we wouldn't know the difference!


 

It's too early for ennui...

A friend of mine from Israel, who happens to be a law professor, is already suffering from Iran overload. She says, "i don't want to talk about iran. don't understand a thing about it. and it is too frustrating." While this may just be the beginning of a long ride for us, Israelis have already been on this ride for some time. However, I think we may all sense some frustration, that once again, the situation seems to be running away, and the rest of the world has no control.

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